Finding value in odds is the best way to make money in football betting. It’s actually the only realistic way to achieve consistency and make money regularly. That indicates that your chances of achieving long-term success are almost zero if you don’t focus on betting for value. However, most sports bettors fail to realize this and tend to wager on the outcome they feel will most likely happen.
So, What’s Value Betting?
As a sports bettor, betting for the outcome that will most likely happen may be the most logical approach to guarantee a win. However, this approach is fundamentally flawed. Though you’ll probably win a lot of wagers when betting with this approach, you won’t necessarily make a huge profit. That means the risk will be much bigger compared to the return on your investment.
What most people don’t realize is that successful betting is not about choosing as many winners as you can get. Instead, it involves finding odds that are in your favour to get your money down when you’ve got a positive expectation. For that to happen, you must fully understand the concept of value.
What’s Value in Football Betting?
When it comes to football betting, value can be negative or positive. Negative value exists when the probability of winning a wager is less than what the odds suggest, while a positive value is present when a wager has a greater probability of winning than the odds suggest. That means you’ll need to find spots with positive value to make money.
When finding football betting odds with Betway, the probability indicated by the odds is commonly referred to as the implied probability. To find this probability, all you need to do is to divide one by the odd value and multiply it by 100 to convert it into percentage form. You can then compare your results with the actual probability of a team winning to know whether you have a positive or negative value.
Identifying Value In Betting Markets
Whether you’re betting at Betway or any other bookie, finding value in a betting market is simply a two-step process. First, you must assess the probabilities of all the possible outcomes and then compare them with the implied probabilities. The first step can be a bit tricky for both novice and adept bettor as it’s not easy to assign accurate probabilities on the possible outcomes.
As there are too many variables when it comes to finding precise probabilities, it’s advisable to avoid relying solely on your existing knowledge about the teams. Instead, you should learn how to effectively research and analyze teams to increase your chances of assessing the teams accurately regularly. Here are some tips for finding value in football betting:
- Consider multiple factors
- Bet on the teams you know
- Never ignore heavy favorites
- Asses the probability before looking at the odds
While the concept of value in football betting is extremely simple, it shouldn’t be underestimated. And though it can be challenging to find positive value consistently, it can be done if one takes time and effort to improve their chances of an accurate assessment. Nonetheless, betting for value doesn’t guarantee a win, but it increases your chances of success.
Sports journalist, content writer and passionate football lover.